Post by bot on Jan 24, 2011 0:37:28 GMT -5
Former allies predict 'more aggressive' Harper if Tories snare majority
By Jason Fekete, Postmedia News
When Stephen Harper stepped onto a stage in Calgary on Jan. 23, 2006, to deliver his election victory speech, the newly minted prime minister-elect triumphantly declared: “Our great country voted for change.”
Indeed, after five years of Conservative party rule under Harper, many things have changed on this country’s fractured political stage.
The Liberals have dispatched two different leaders; the Tories now control the Senate; the country is mired in consecutive budget deficits; the GST is five per cent; and the combat mission in Afghanistan is nearing its end.
However, one hasn’t changed, and it continues to shape the federal political scene: Harper and the Conservatives are still searching for an elusive majority government.
Harper’s next shot at a majority government — and what most observers say will be his final attempt — could come within a few months, as all parties ramp up their campaign machinery for a possible spring election.
The Conservatives and the Liberals have both unleashed attack adds in recent days, as the pre-election sabre-rattling has increased.
But myriad questions remain as to whether Harper and his party can clear the final hurdle. The prime minister still finds himself trying to dispel opposition claims of a hidden agenda that would be unleashed if the Tories captured a majority in the House of Commons.
Tom Flanagan, a political scientist at the University of Calgary and former chief of staff to Harper, said his former boss has to avoid the kind of mistakes he’s made in the past if he wants to snare a majority.
“He just needs to be at his best,” Flanagan said. “He has to be steady.”
Political observers say Harper has been his own worst enemy at times — musing about controversial policies and making ill-timed comments — and that he must learn to avoid gaffes that can cast doubt in the minds of Canadian voters.
Flanagan says the latest mistake came just last week. Harper said in an interview with CBC-TV that he personally believes “there are times where capital punishment is appropriate,” but that he doesn’t plan to revisit the issue as prime minister.
Having the prime minister discuss differences between his opinion and government policy can leave voters second-guessing whether Harper would rule differently with a majority, Flanagan said.
“That kind of stuff throws everything off for a while,” he said.
Despite the speed bumps they’ve hit, the Tories and their 143 members of Parliament aren’t far from their coveted majority — needing only to pick up 12 ridings in the next campaign to control the 308-seat House of Commons.
Former Calgary Tory MP Art said that, should the Conservatives hit the magic number of 155 seats, he thinks Harper will be “more aggressive” on a number of fronts.
Hanger said he believes Harper would initiate tougher crime policies, move further to chop red tape, be more assertive on the economy and boost military support, among other moves.
Others who know Harper well agree the prime minister might show a deeper shade of Tory blue and pursue more conservative policies were he to win a majority.
Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton — who co-authored the famous 2001 firewall letter with Harper, which urged the provincial government to build up safeguards against federal intervention — said he believes the prime minister has matured greatly during his five years in office.
Harper is less partisan, more patient and less sensitive than when he first took power, as he learned the demands of government are far different than those in opposition, he said.
However, Morton said he hopes a Conservative majority government would enable Harper to show more of his Tory colours and allow for some additional freedoms in government.
“His ambit of policy discretion has been pretty tightly circumscribed by minority government, and I’m very hopeful and optimistic he’ll have a majority government,” Morton added.
“We’ll see, probably again, yet another Stephen Harper then if he has that.”
Hanger, for his part, said Harper must remain true to his Conservative roots or risk alienating Tory voters in Western Canada, he said, believing “We have a ways to go” to fulfil the prime minister’s pledge five years ago that “the West is now in.”
Hanger said his former Tory caucus colleagues must rein in an “astronomical” deficit and tighten the purse strings if they’re to appease the Conservative base and make inroads in other regions of Canada.
Hanger said capturing a majority in the next campaign “is going to be a tough one.”
He said winning more seats deep into the major cities remains a formidable challenge for the Conservatives.
Overall public support and vote totals for each party likely won’t change much in the next election, said Peter McCormick, political scientist at the University of Lethbridge in Alberta.
The Tories own 69 seats in the four western provinces, including 26 of 28 in Alberta.
The best growth prospects for the Tories are in the Toronto suburbs and surrounding bedroom communities, while simply retaining the party’s 11 seats in Quebec will be difficult, McCormick said.
But rather than hoping for sweeping political change, the Conservatives now seem to be thinking incrementally, targeting a few dozen specific opposition ridings they feel are vulnerable and capable of delivering the majority, he said.
“We are in a new political party system and a new environment,” McCormick said. “But the Conservatives may have reshuffled where their votes are in such a way as to deliver that last handful of seats.”
Calgary Herald, with files from Postmedia News
jfekete@calgaryherald.com
By Jason Fekete, Postmedia News
When Stephen Harper stepped onto a stage in Calgary on Jan. 23, 2006, to deliver his election victory speech, the newly minted prime minister-elect triumphantly declared: “Our great country voted for change.”
Indeed, after five years of Conservative party rule under Harper, many things have changed on this country’s fractured political stage.
The Liberals have dispatched two different leaders; the Tories now control the Senate; the country is mired in consecutive budget deficits; the GST is five per cent; and the combat mission in Afghanistan is nearing its end.
However, one hasn’t changed, and it continues to shape the federal political scene: Harper and the Conservatives are still searching for an elusive majority government.
Harper’s next shot at a majority government — and what most observers say will be his final attempt — could come within a few months, as all parties ramp up their campaign machinery for a possible spring election.
The Conservatives and the Liberals have both unleashed attack adds in recent days, as the pre-election sabre-rattling has increased.
But myriad questions remain as to whether Harper and his party can clear the final hurdle. The prime minister still finds himself trying to dispel opposition claims of a hidden agenda that would be unleashed if the Tories captured a majority in the House of Commons.
Tom Flanagan, a political scientist at the University of Calgary and former chief of staff to Harper, said his former boss has to avoid the kind of mistakes he’s made in the past if he wants to snare a majority.
“He just needs to be at his best,” Flanagan said. “He has to be steady.”
Political observers say Harper has been his own worst enemy at times — musing about controversial policies and making ill-timed comments — and that he must learn to avoid gaffes that can cast doubt in the minds of Canadian voters.
Flanagan says the latest mistake came just last week. Harper said in an interview with CBC-TV that he personally believes “there are times where capital punishment is appropriate,” but that he doesn’t plan to revisit the issue as prime minister.
Having the prime minister discuss differences between his opinion and government policy can leave voters second-guessing whether Harper would rule differently with a majority, Flanagan said.
“That kind of stuff throws everything off for a while,” he said.
Despite the speed bumps they’ve hit, the Tories and their 143 members of Parliament aren’t far from their coveted majority — needing only to pick up 12 ridings in the next campaign to control the 308-seat House of Commons.
Former Calgary Tory MP Art said that, should the Conservatives hit the magic number of 155 seats, he thinks Harper will be “more aggressive” on a number of fronts.
Hanger said he believes Harper would initiate tougher crime policies, move further to chop red tape, be more assertive on the economy and boost military support, among other moves.
Others who know Harper well agree the prime minister might show a deeper shade of Tory blue and pursue more conservative policies were he to win a majority.
Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton — who co-authored the famous 2001 firewall letter with Harper, which urged the provincial government to build up safeguards against federal intervention — said he believes the prime minister has matured greatly during his five years in office.
Harper is less partisan, more patient and less sensitive than when he first took power, as he learned the demands of government are far different than those in opposition, he said.
However, Morton said he hopes a Conservative majority government would enable Harper to show more of his Tory colours and allow for some additional freedoms in government.
“His ambit of policy discretion has been pretty tightly circumscribed by minority government, and I’m very hopeful and optimistic he’ll have a majority government,” Morton added.
“We’ll see, probably again, yet another Stephen Harper then if he has that.”
Hanger, for his part, said Harper must remain true to his Conservative roots or risk alienating Tory voters in Western Canada, he said, believing “We have a ways to go” to fulfil the prime minister’s pledge five years ago that “the West is now in.”
Hanger said his former Tory caucus colleagues must rein in an “astronomical” deficit and tighten the purse strings if they’re to appease the Conservative base and make inroads in other regions of Canada.
Hanger said capturing a majority in the next campaign “is going to be a tough one.”
He said winning more seats deep into the major cities remains a formidable challenge for the Conservatives.
Overall public support and vote totals for each party likely won’t change much in the next election, said Peter McCormick, political scientist at the University of Lethbridge in Alberta.
The Tories own 69 seats in the four western provinces, including 26 of 28 in Alberta.
The best growth prospects for the Tories are in the Toronto suburbs and surrounding bedroom communities, while simply retaining the party’s 11 seats in Quebec will be difficult, McCormick said.
But rather than hoping for sweeping political change, the Conservatives now seem to be thinking incrementally, targeting a few dozen specific opposition ridings they feel are vulnerable and capable of delivering the majority, he said.
“We are in a new political party system and a new environment,” McCormick said. “But the Conservatives may have reshuffled where their votes are in such a way as to deliver that last handful of seats.”
Calgary Herald, with files from Postmedia News
jfekete@calgaryherald.com