Post by bot on Jun 2, 2004 2:50:53 GMT -5
Kerry's visit reinforces Florida's importance in election
By JILL BARTON
Associated Press Writer
www.theledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040601/APN/406010901
RIVIERA BEACH, Fla.
John Kerry chose a scenic waterfront spot, with rows of uniformed law enforcement officers behind him, to launch his latest attack on President Bush's national security policies.
He received rousing applause from a crowd of 300 in a county that remains so riled over the 2000 election that a win should seem obvious.
But Kerry's speech at the Port of Palm Beach marked his third visit in three months to Palm Beach County, a sign that he's not taking votes for granted in even the traditionally Democratic strongholds of southeastern Florida that helped delay President Bush's win in 2000.
Bush won the state and the presidency by only 537 votes, with Democratic Palm Beach County, best known for creating the infamously confusing butterfly ballot, shouldering much of the blame.
"I think in Palm Beach County, it's not a question of winning it or losing it, but by what magnitude of victory they can achieve," said David Niven, an associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University. "Because the essence of the Democratic mass is you can lose almost the entire state as long as you win a big enough margin in a few of the counties."
Niven said the late Gov. Lawton Chiles defeated Gov. Jeb Bush in 1994 by winning only a handful of Florida's 67 counties. The populous counties of southeastern Florida could deliver a similar victory for Kerry.
But with the next election promising to make Florida as important as in 2000, Republicans refuse to concede any part of the Sunshine State. Sid Dinerstein, chairman of the Republican Party of Palm Beach County, said Bush won only 34 percent of the county in 2000 but still won the state. Gov. Jeb. Bush, the president's brother, improved on that by taking nearly 43 percent in the county during his re-election in 2002.
"We expect to do a lot better than even that this year," Dinerstein said. "We don't need 50 percent of the vote here to take Florida off the table for John Kerry."
Including his recent stops in Palm Beach County, Kerry has made 17 trips to the Florida, while President Bush has visited the state 21 times since he was elected. That includes a single trip to Palm Beach County for a fund-raiser in January.
Vice President Dick Cheney irritated local Democrats with another trip here three weeks ago, in which he touted Bush's success with the war on terror to a crowd of Jewish voters, from whom Democrats have traditionally drawn a majority.
Niven said that while Kerry will likely continue to mobilize his area support, appearances by Bush probably will be rare.
"I think we'll see a lot of John Kerry in Palm Beach County. I don't think we'll see a lot of George W. Bush in Palm Beach County because an unpopular political figure tends to increase turnout and the more people that vote, the more people you're going to lose the county by," Niven said. "George W. Bush doesn't do himself any favors by showing up here."
Instead, Bush will look to turn out record numbers of voters in north Florida and the Panhandle, where he could expect an easier win, Niven said.
"It's a world away from the folks in New York, and Texas and California, where people might think there isn't a presidential election. Not a single commercial has aired, and that's because both campaigns view them as unalterable," Niven said, noting that Bush expects an easy win in his home state of Texas and Kerry expects a win in the other two states. "But both campaigns view Florida as a state they can win and that's what makes it so interesting."
By JILL BARTON
Associated Press Writer
www.theledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040601/APN/406010901
RIVIERA BEACH, Fla.
John Kerry chose a scenic waterfront spot, with rows of uniformed law enforcement officers behind him, to launch his latest attack on President Bush's national security policies.
He received rousing applause from a crowd of 300 in a county that remains so riled over the 2000 election that a win should seem obvious.
But Kerry's speech at the Port of Palm Beach marked his third visit in three months to Palm Beach County, a sign that he's not taking votes for granted in even the traditionally Democratic strongholds of southeastern Florida that helped delay President Bush's win in 2000.
Bush won the state and the presidency by only 537 votes, with Democratic Palm Beach County, best known for creating the infamously confusing butterfly ballot, shouldering much of the blame.
"I think in Palm Beach County, it's not a question of winning it or losing it, but by what magnitude of victory they can achieve," said David Niven, an associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University. "Because the essence of the Democratic mass is you can lose almost the entire state as long as you win a big enough margin in a few of the counties."
Niven said the late Gov. Lawton Chiles defeated Gov. Jeb Bush in 1994 by winning only a handful of Florida's 67 counties. The populous counties of southeastern Florida could deliver a similar victory for Kerry.
But with the next election promising to make Florida as important as in 2000, Republicans refuse to concede any part of the Sunshine State. Sid Dinerstein, chairman of the Republican Party of Palm Beach County, said Bush won only 34 percent of the county in 2000 but still won the state. Gov. Jeb. Bush, the president's brother, improved on that by taking nearly 43 percent in the county during his re-election in 2002.
"We expect to do a lot better than even that this year," Dinerstein said. "We don't need 50 percent of the vote here to take Florida off the table for John Kerry."
Including his recent stops in Palm Beach County, Kerry has made 17 trips to the Florida, while President Bush has visited the state 21 times since he was elected. That includes a single trip to Palm Beach County for a fund-raiser in January.
Vice President Dick Cheney irritated local Democrats with another trip here three weeks ago, in which he touted Bush's success with the war on terror to a crowd of Jewish voters, from whom Democrats have traditionally drawn a majority.
Niven said that while Kerry will likely continue to mobilize his area support, appearances by Bush probably will be rare.
"I think we'll see a lot of John Kerry in Palm Beach County. I don't think we'll see a lot of George W. Bush in Palm Beach County because an unpopular political figure tends to increase turnout and the more people that vote, the more people you're going to lose the county by," Niven said. "George W. Bush doesn't do himself any favors by showing up here."
Instead, Bush will look to turn out record numbers of voters in north Florida and the Panhandle, where he could expect an easier win, Niven said.
"It's a world away from the folks in New York, and Texas and California, where people might think there isn't a presidential election. Not a single commercial has aired, and that's because both campaigns view them as unalterable," Niven said, noting that Bush expects an easy win in his home state of Texas and Kerry expects a win in the other two states. "But both campaigns view Florida as a state they can win and that's what makes it so interesting."